A total of 1,237 suicide cases were analyzed, with a mean age of 37.5 years (SD = 15.9), predominantly among males (66%). The highest number of deaths occurred between 2018 and 2021, peaking in 2019. Married individuals constituted the largest marital-status group (40.7%), and only 9.8% had a previous suicide attempt. The most common suicide methods were categorized as "other" methods (58.5%) and rice pill (aluminum phosphide) ingestion (37.3%). Across all years, males consistently had higher mean ages at death and suicide rates than females. YLL was greatest among males aged 25 - 29 years and females aged 15 - 19 years, indicating vulnerable age groups. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed no statistically significant changes or joinpoints in suicide trends from 2016 to 2021, with a modest but nonsignificant annual increase in suicide rates (APC ≈ 4.19%; P = 0.22). A slight, nonsignificant year-to-year fluctuation was observed around 2018 in both sexes. Overall, the suicide trend in northern Iran remained relatively stable during this period, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and targeted prevention efforts.
The analysis of 1,237 suicide cases in northern Iran, with a mean age of 37.5 years and a predominance of male victims, is consistent with the broader literature on suicide mortality and YLL, which often shows marked demographic differences across age and sex groups. The higher suicide mortality among men observed in this retrospective, registry-based descriptive trend study (66%) aligns with global and Iranian evidence indicating greater suicide mortality and YLL among males, particularly during young adulthood (25 - 29 years) (
6). Patterns such as the high mean age at suicide (37.5 years) and low previous-attempt rate (9.8%) should be interpreted cautiously, given potential confounders, including underreporting bias, stigma surrounding mental health disclosure, and limited access to psychiatric care in rural provinces. In Iran, cultural stigma may lead to the misclassification of suicides as accidental deaths or deaths of undetermined intent, which can artificially lower reported attempt rates compared with Western contexts, where previous attempts exceed 20% - 30% (
6). Family conflicts, marital discord, and economic pressures, which are common contributors to suicidal behavior in Iran, may drive impulsive fatal acts without previous attempts, particularly among males facing societal expectations of provider roles, higher risk-taking behaviors, and reduced mental health service utilization. These sociocultural factors contribute to gender disparities and highlight the need to strengthen vital registration systems to reduce reporting bias.
This age group is among the most economically and socially active in society, and this harm leads to the loss of the country's most important social capital and many potential years of life (
7). The substantial proportion of cases among married individuals also echoes recent research suggesting that although marriage is generally a protective factor, sociofamilial stressors, especially those related to addiction or economic hardship, can increase vulnerability even in this group (8 - 10). Furthermore, the prominent use of rice pills (aluminum phosphide) and other lethal means underscores the unique epidemiological patterns of suicide in Iran, where means restriction remains a key preventive strategy (
8). These demographic patterns align with recent Iranian research documenting suicide characteristics and their association with family history, further emphasizing the role of heritable and familial risk factors in regional suicide epidemiology (
6). Mazandaran's stable suicide trend (APC = 4.19%; P = 0.22) and crude rates (5 - 7 per 100,000) contrast with higher-burden western provinces, such as Ilam (28.9 per 100,000), Kermanshah (13.5 per 100,000 males), and Hamedan, where firearms and self-immolation predominate compared with pesticide-related methods in Mazandaran, highlighting regional variation in suicide methods across Iran. Nationally, Iran's suicide rate is below WHO global averages, yet the YLL burden remains substantial among youth, as documented in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, where 9,248 male YLL were reported over 6 years (
11,
12).
The stable suicide trend in Mazandaran (APC = 4.19%; P = 0.22) aligns with national patterns showing a persistent YLL burden. A recent Iranian study reported total YLL due to suicide over 4 years as 611,068 years (15.97 per 1,000 persons) among males, 286,847 years (7.65 per 1,000 persons) among females, and 897,915 years (11.86 per 1,000 persons) overall, demonstrating substantially higher national YLL rates than the localized burden in Mazandaran during 2016 - 2021. This consistency underscores the sustained public health impact across Iran despite stable trends, contrasting with global declines in rates but persistent YLL among youth (
13).
Despite careful examination using joinpoint regression, this study found no statistically significant change points or substantial annual increases in suicide mortality rates from 2016 to 2021. This stable but persistent trend, with only a modest and nonsignificant APC of approximately 4.19%, is consistent with longitudinal findings from both global and Iranian data (
14), suggesting that although the suicide burden, as measured by YLL, remains high and persistent, overall rates have not increased sharply in recent years. However, certain age groups, particularly males aged 25 - 29 years and females aged 15 - 19 years, continue to experience disproportionately high YLL due to suicide, highlighting ongoing public health priorities for youth-focused and gender-sensitive prevention efforts (
13,
14). The persistence of these demographic patterns and the lethality of available means indicate the need for comprehensive, context-specific suicide prevention strategies that address both individual- and population-level risk factors, as underscored by YLL analyses in Iran and internationally (
15).
5.1. Limitations
Although this registry-based analysis provides robust provincial trend estimates for Mazandaran, several limitations temper its generalizability. These include potential underascertainment of suicides due to the misclassification of undetermined deaths, exclusion of incomplete records introducing selection bias, lack of individual-level confounders such as psychiatric history and socioeconomic status, and a 7-year timeframe that limits long-term trend detection. These provincial findings, emphasizing stable rates and high YLL among young males with pesticide predominance, may extend to similar rural northern Iranian contexts but may be less applicable to urban areas where different methods are more common. Therefore, multiregional studies are needed to confirm national relevance.
This study has several limitations inherent to registry-based research. The registry-based design is prone to underascertainment and misclassification bias because deaths of undetermined intent and cases with incomplete information were excluded, and some suicides may have been coded as accidental or of unknown cause.
First, to minimize these biases, all cases with unknown causes or incomplete registry data were excluded according to the inclusion criteria described in the Methods section. Although necessary for analytical rigor, this exclusion may have omitted latent suicide trends captured in undetermined deaths, a recognized issue in countries with underreporting or misclassification, including Iran. Such cases often represent conservative indicators of the true suicide burden, potentially underestimating overall rates and YLL in Mazandaran. Future studies should incorporate sensitivity analyses that include cases of undetermined intent (ICD-10 codes Y10-Y34) to assess this bias. Second, reliance on forensic registry data precluded the capture of nonfatal attempts or psychosocial risk factors. Third, the 7-year timeframe limited the detection of long-term trends. Despite these constraints, joinpoint regression provides robust trend estimation from verified completed suicides.
The limited number of annual observations reduced statistical power, and the wide confidence intervals indicate that APC estimates are imprecise. Therefore, these findings should be interpreted as descriptive trends rather than definitive evidence of change.
5.2. Conclusions
Overall, the suicide trend in northern Iran remained relatively stable but persistent during the study period, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and targeted prevention efforts. The stable suicide trend, combined with high YLL among young adults, indicates a substantial public health burden and the need for targeted prevention. Therefore, the government should adopt appropriate health policies.