The Predictive Validity of Prior Academic Achievement as an Indicator of Medical Students’ Performance at University of Khartoum

Background: There is emphasis on the selection method that better predicts doctors’ performance. Universities select medical students based mainly and sometimes solely on high academic achievement. Claims were often made for some minimum threshold ability level while systematic research suggested a higher threshold to be more appropriate. Admission to medical colleges in Sudan is based solely onstudent’s score in secondary school certificate, derived from matriculation examinations. We aimed to assess the validity of this selection policy and to determine the score that best predicts students’ performance.Methods: We included the last two graduated batches of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Khartoum, Sudan. Students’ score in Sudanese secondary school certificate and their final examinations results in the faculty were analyzed. Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS software, version 20.Results: The predictive validity of students’ score in secondary school certificate was 0.303. English, Mathematics, and Chemistry grades predicted better performance in the faculty.Conclusion: Our results supported the current selection policy and other methods that test students’ non-cognitive domain (more is better policy). This system guides selecting between students who sat for matriculation examinations once or more and between those with high/less marks in English language.