According to FIGO, the sequential rise (more than 10%) of β-hCG for ≥ 2 weeks or plateauing (changes less than ± 10%) for ≥ 3 weeks are indications for starting chemotherapy (
13). Although serum β-hCG titer is a powerful test and not yet replaced by other modalities, complementary method is needed:
Several studies were performed on different predictive factors till now (
9,
12,
13,
15). In this article, among different pre-evacuation factors, the theca lutein cyst is found to be a useful parameter. Its close association with new hyperthyroidism and uterine volume ≥ 1000 cm³ emphasizes that if a patient with GTD had new hyperthyroidism, multiple bilateral theca lutein cysts and large uterine volume, is very high-risk for further development of malignancy. However, in some previous studies it was shown that other factors had an association with persistent GTD (
1,
16-
18). In a study on 189 patients with GTD, only uterine size was significant among pre-evacuation factors (maternal age, gestational age, blood group, vaginal bleeding, uterine volume, theca lutein cysts) (
13). Our limited number of patients could be a reason for this difference. In addition, the early detection of molar pregnancy by ultrasound may be another reason, we did not see these features as common as previous exams. In an evaluation of Doppler characteristics of the uterine arteries, we observed that the Doppler index values significantly increased in patients of group B during the follow-up, but did not in another group. Other studies revealed similar findings that changes in Doppler indices inversely correlated with β-hCG titers (
8-
10,
19). However, P value of these changes during 9 weeks follow-up course was not as significant as another similar investigation performed by Abd El Aal et al. (
8). In their study, P value of Doppler index changes in each visit was about 0.0005. Nevertheless, in this study, weekly changes in Doppler values were not significant in any of patients. There was no significant difference in pre-evacuation Doppler results of the both groups. Although, changes were faint and occasionally unpredictable in each follow-up exam. As it is shown in
Figures 1 and
2, weekly changes at least for a short period did not obey the usual rule, for example in some patients of group B (as shown in
Figure 1), after rising Doppler values for weeks, sudden decline occurred and so on in group A (as shown in
Figure 2). Therefore, it can be suggested that Doppler study is not a practical prognostic factor to differentiate these two groups. In this study, any abnormal finding in the uterus at the first follow-up examination was more related with persistent mole; in 7 (87.5%) patients of group A versus 3 (27.3%) patients of the other group (p = 0.02). Any abnormal echo in the myometrium or retained tissue in the endometrium at the first follow-up examination is predictive of a high-risk state. On the other hand, pre-evacuation prognostic factors are not observed as common as previously. Therefore, ultrasound, which can accurately diagnose high-risk patients in the first week, when β-hCG test is not helpful, has a worthful role in selecting patients who need closer follow-up. Focal indistinct junctional zone with hypervascularity in this area was observed nearly similar in the both groups, and did not increase the risk of persistent disease. The most statistically significant ultrasound findings in this examination were myometrial involvement as deeply invasion to myometrium and new myometrial nodule (P = 0.005). These findings were observed in two patients in the first follow-up (before rising of β-hCG titer) and in other three patients at the first rising of β-hCG titer. This confirms the recent investigations. In the study of Garavaglia et al. at multivariate analysis, only endometrial and myometrial involvement among different prognostic factors (maternal and gestational age, uterine size, theca lutein cyst, etc.) was significant (P = 0.0001) (
13). Betel et al. compared GTD with retained product of conception. In this study, myometrial epicenter, deep invasion to myometrium, thin endometrium, placental sinusoids and large mass were their five significant sonographic criteria. No Doppler indices or theca lutein cysts were significant (
12). Rapid growth of endometrial retained tissue was observed in one patient with persistent disease. Although it was not statistically significant, it is not considered a usual finding and suggests persistent disease. Many patients with GTD are from low socioeconomic class and do not follow perfectly their post evacuation β-hCG tests. Thus, in high-risk patients who do not perform β-hCG test at all or consecutively, observation of myometrial involvement or rapid growth of uterus mass is helpful to make a decision regarding the start of chemoprophylaxis. Despite the small sample size, several factors were evaluated in this prospective study in a serial manner and our follow-up examinations started at the first post evacuation week. However, in our review of literature, the most investigations on GTD were either retrospective or started several weeks after evacuation and none of them emphasized the role of first week ultrasound. This research indicated that in patients with GTD showing no pre-evacuation prognostic factors, first week ultrasound could detect high-risk patients. When β-hCG titer is not available in high-risk patients, ultrasound is an effective and useful method to make a decision of starting prophylactic chemotherapy and can be relied on as a powerful adjuvant to serum β-hCG test.