The results of the current study showed that, in 2010, the socioeconomic inequality of unintended pregnancy was pro-rich and unintended pregnancy was more concentrated among disadvantaged women. In 2010 - 2015, this pro-rich inequality was reduced by 120%. In 2015, unintended pregnancy, if ignoring its insignificant more concentration among advantaged women, was almost equally distributed among women from different socioeconomic strata. The pro-rich unintended pregnancy inequality in the period of the family planning program (FPP) implementation and its reduction after the changes in FP policies show that presence of this program could not guarantee equality in unintended pregnancy distribution among women from different socioeconomic strata. Therefore, there were some other factors affecting the reduction in unintended pregnancy inequality among Iranian married women.
According to the results of the decomposition analysis, in 2010, households’ economic status and women’s age at pregnancy were the main contributors to the pro-rich unintended pregnancy inequality. However, the contributions of these variables to the unintended pregnancy inequality were quite different in 2015. Furthermore, the results of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis revealed that while changes in contributions of these two factors narrowed predominantly the pro-rich inequality gap over the study period, changes in contributions of the contraceptive non-use before pregnancy and women’s education level widened this inequality gap significantly.
As shown in
Table 3, the positive contribution of household’s economic status to the reduced pro-rich inequality of unintended pregnancy was largely due to changes in elasticities, indicating that pregnant women’s sensitivity in reporting their pregnancies as unintended with respect to their economic status changed over the study period. These changes can be due to alterations in fertility preferences and relative effectiveness of women’s contraception behavior in practicing their fertility preferences in various socioeconomic groups.
Women’s fertility preferences can be affected by the household’s economic status. The results of a meta-analysis study in Iran indicated that economic uncertainties, such as inflation and rising costs of living, affect the decisions of couples on having a child, especially those who have insufficient resources to meet their household’s economic expectations (
22). Furthermore, the results of Erfani’s study in the period of FPP implementation showed that, in comparison with women from higher socioeconomic groups, women from lower socioeconomic groups (poor, rural, and less educated) used the modern contraceptive methods more than withdrawal method (
23). However, it was more likely to have reports of unwanted pregnancies due to the failure of modern methods than the time that women used the withdrawal method. In addition, the probability of reporting a mistimed pregnancy did not differ significantly when using either of the preceding methods (
11). This implies that although disadvantaged women used more effective contraceptive methods than their advantaged counterparts in the period of FPP implementation (2010), they had more unintended pregnancy rate. This may be because of the high sensitivity of disadvantaged women against the financial risk of having more children and becoming pregnant.
In 2010 - 2015, more elasticity of unintended pregnancy with respect to economic status shifted from disadvantaged to advantaged woman. It seems that in this period, an improvement in economic conditions could decrease the risk of unintended pregnancy for disadvantaged women. In 2010 - 2015, the inflation rate decreased from 12.4% to 11.9% (
24). Similarly, the unemployment rate was 13.5% in 2010, whereas it declined to 11.1% in 2015 (
25). Furthermore, the Gini index decreased from 0.41 in 2010 to 0.38 in 2015 (
26), indicating that the economic inequality gap between the rich and the poor narrowed between the two periods. Such changes in macroeconomic variables could improve the poor household’s economic status, as well as their level of living standards, and could reduce the risk of childbearing and unintended pregnancy in disadvantaged women more than their advantaged counterparts. Changes in the contraception behavior of advantaged women can be another reason for increased unintended pregnancy elasticity for this group after the changes in family planning policies. According to the results of Azmoude et al.'s study in the east of Iran, the probability of using long-acting and permanent sterilization methods was more among advantaged women than disadvantaged ones (
27). Other studies across the world have reported similar findings, too (
28,
29). In 2010, permanent sterilization was the second most common method for women’s contraception in Iran with a prevalence of 14.15% (
30). Considering that advantaged women rely more on these methods than their disadvantaged counterparts, it seems that banning the permanent sterilization after the changes in FP policies affected advantaged women more and increased unintended pregnancy in these women more than their counterparts.
Women’s age at pregnancy was the second main factor that had a positive contribution to the reduced pro-rich unintended pregnancy inequality. According to the results of other studies, by increasing the age at pregnancy, women were more likely to experience unintended pregnancy and the rate of these pregnancies was higher in older women (
7,
31). It seems that, in comparison to advantaged women, their disadvantaged counterparts are more willing to postpone their childbearing to prepare its prerequisite conditions (
22). Therefore, a lower desire for early pregnancy among disadvantaged women could decrease the likelihood of their unintended pregnancy at higher ages. In this regard, an increment in women’s age at pregnancy in recent years (
32) could increase unintended pregnancy in advantaged women more than in their disadvantaged counterparts.
Contrary to the household’s economic status and age at pregnancy, not using contraceptive methods before pregnancy and women’s education level were the main factors that negatively contributed to the reduced inequality of unintended pregnancy after the changes in FP policies. In both periods, the contraceptive non-use was more concentrated among disadvantaged women than in their advantaged counterparts. However, by a reduction in the negative elasticity of the unintended pregnancy with respect to the contraceptive non-use, the concentration of unintended pregnancy among disadvantaged women increased. This implies that in the period of FPP implementation, in most cases where disadvantaged women did not use contraceptive methods, they intended to become pregnant. However, after the changes in FP policies, there were some limitations in access to the FP services in the public sector and this may have decreased the contraceptive use among disadvantaged women who did not want to become pregnant and increased their unintended pregnancies.
In terms of education level, the results of other studies have shown that women with lower education levels were more likely to experience unintended pregnancy (
7,
14,
33). In this regard, it seems that the changes in FP policies can be a reason for increased pregnancy among less-educated women in households from lower socioeconomic groups, who had a higher risk of experiencing unintended pregnancy than others and compared to the previous period of FPP implementation.
The negative contributions of contraceptive non-use and women’s education level were predominantly offset by the positive contributions of economic status and age at pregnancy. This implies that while limited access to FP services in the public sector could adversely affect the disadvantaged women’s contraception behavior, an improvement in household’s economic status could decrease the risk of childbearing and unintended pregnancy in these women. Furthermore, banning the permanent sterilization methods along with the increased pregnancy at higher ages might increase unintended pregnancy in disadvantaged women less than their advantaged counterparts and decrease its pro-rich inequality gap.
The present study has some strengths and limitations. As the required data were extracted from the IrMIDHS at a national level, the findings of this study can be generalized to all Iranian married women. In addition, due to not having reliable data from the households’ income and expenditure in the IrMIDHS, we used an asset-based index to measure the households’ socioeconomic status. Ultimately, since the present study is cross-sectional, the casualty between the outcome variable and the explanatory variables should be interpreted with caution.
5.1. Conclusions
The results of the current study showed that unintended pregnancy was more concentrated among disadvantaged women in the period of FPP implementation. After the changes in FP policies, not only there was no increase in this inequality gap but also it declined to zero. The household’s economic status had a more significant contribution to the reduced pro-rich inequality of unintended pregnancy in 2010 - 2015. Therefore, to maintain this favorable condition in the future, it is necessary to monitor the economic status of disadvantaged households with women at reproductive ages and adopt suitable policy options to provide a sustainable livelihood for them. It should be noted that the results of this study were obtained in only three years after the changes in FP policies and did not assess changes in unintended pregnancy inequality in long-term. In this regard, further researches needed to investigate the effects of long term changes in economic conditions, women's fertility preferences and contraception behavior on the socioeconomic inequality of unintended pregnancy in Iran.