Due to an historically large diffusion of some of its main risk factors (e.g., HBV and alcohol intake) and the recent spread of novel etiologies (e.g., HCV and fatty liver diseases), HCC incidence has progressed in most regions of the world in the last decades and so did the corresponding mortality. In the immense majority of cases, HCC is secondary to a protracted liver disease that frequently progressed to cirrhosis explaining why in most cases patients present to tertiary healthcare institutions with an already significantly altered personal clinical status. The prognosis of the disease is thus overwhelmingly poor, especially in low- and middle-income countries where the surveillance system is usually not adequate. Implementation of new biomarkers capable that can be combined with alpha-fœtoprotein (AFP) detection to diagnose early forms of HCC is thus of paramount importance to improve the rate of cure or to reasonably extend the median survival rate of patients with HCC. High-throughput sequencing or new forms of PCR techniques currently provide the possibility to explore the blood for the presence of rare molecules shed by tumor cells in an approach conveniently designated as liquid biopsy.
In the great MENA region defined by the World Health Organization, the overall prevalence of chronic infections with hepatitis B (HBV) or C (HCV) viruses ranges around 2% - 3% but reaches 15% - 20% in Egypt (i.e., between 22 - 26 million individuals are concerned) (
18-
20). In addition, MENA is known as one of the regions (with the United States of America) with the highest rates of overweight/obesity, metabolic syndrome, and type-2 diabetes (T2D) (
21). Indeed, metabolic disorders are currently affecting MENA populations as early as infancy or childhood, a situation predicted to have deleterious health consequences for the future grown-up generations. Dysmetabolic conditions have emerged recently as a major cause of morbidity for the liver and they represent important risk factors for terminal diseases such as cirrhosis and HCC (
22,
23). The outcomes of such worrying epidemiological situation are that liver cirrhosis represents currently the 6th cause of death in the region and HCC incidence had massively increased in the past decades (
2). In Tunisia, itself, with a little bit more than 110 cases of HCC per year, the toll taken by primary liver cancer is thus considered as relatively mild according to GLOBOCAN 2012 (
1). However, it has been frequently suggested and recently substantiated that in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) the incidence of HCC is probably significantly underestimated (
24). In addition, in Tunisia, the median survival time of patients diagnosed with HCC is low as it barely exceeds 6 months (
25).
Recent works have shown that -124C>T mutation in
TERT promoter represents undoubtedly a very promising DNA marker for early HCC detection (
12). In the present series, this mutant was found in almost 15% of patients but also in 6% of controls, thereby precluding any significant association with liver tumorigenesis due to the small size of the tested groups. However, in accordance with data from whole genome sequencing, we observed that the
TERT point mutation was more abundant in HCV-infected patients (22.2%) than in HBV-infected cases (10.0%) or uninfected patients (0.0%) (
26). In HBV-infected patients, a significant proportion of
TERT alterations are actually provided by HBV DNA integrations in the gene promoter making point mutant no longer necessary for tumorigenesis. We consider, therefore, that -124C>T mutant still represents a promising biomarker in the monitoring of cirrhotic patients at risk for HCC, or the diagnosis of HCC in case of ambiguous imaging assessment of the liver nodule.
Global climate warming is suspected to extend the areas where aflatoxin-producing strains of
Aspergillus will be distributed (
27). As an example, sterigmatocystin, a precursor metabolite of aflatoxin B1, has been retrieved recently in grains from Norway (
28). The long-time proven presence of AFB1 in a significant proportion of staple food consumed in Tunisia joint to the possibility to detect its mutagenic consequences in the blood of patients with HCC make Tunisians an attractive target to test the presence of tumor-associated alterations in the blood (
7,
8,
29-
34). The present work confirms the warning issued for decades by environmental scientists and proved that Tunisians are or have been recently exposed to the mutagenic activity of AFB1.
Our data suggest that Aleppo pine nuts are probably not the principal culprit in this situation. This nut is produced mostly in the central mountains in the region of Kasserine and consumed throughout the country, whereas
TP53 R249S is found mostly in patients from Nabeul governorate on the north eastern coast of Tunisia. The Nabeul governorate is a major agricultural region in Tunisia with large segments of irrigated cultures dedicated to the production of oranges (
Citrus reticulata) or chili pepper (
Capsicum), the latter used in the national condiment
Harissa. The spoilage of oranges (i.e., fruits and juice) or chili pepper with
Aspergillus and their subsequent contamination by aflatoxin have been already described (
35,
36). Our results should represent a strong incentive to conduct field studies in Nabeul governorate and elsewhere in the country with the aim of finding the eventual source of AFB1.
Among the questions raised by our analyses is the counter-intuitively higher prevalence of TP53 R249S mutants in controls than in patients with HCC. A logical explanation could be that the number target cells (i.e., hepatocytes) is much higher in healthy subjects than in patients with HCC who are generally affected with liver cirrhosis. In such circumstances, the parenchyma is replaced by fibrotic scars that lead on the long term to liver failure characterized by a number of hepatocytes insufficient to produce enough clotting factors or to detoxify ammonia.
In addition, liver cirrhosis is associated with a reduction of blood flow in the liver materialized by collateral venous circulation. Taken together, these phenomena might both contribute to reduction in the number of liver targets for AFB1 and the access of the mycotoxin to its primary site of action. In our opinion, this pathophysiological process might explain the higher prevalence of
TP53 R249S in subjects with a healthy liver when compared to patients with a terminal liver disease. Two reports from Egypt have explored the presence of
TP53 R249S mutants in cfDNA of patients with HCC. Hosny et al. (
37) found a higher prevalence of mutation carriers in patients without HCC but with HBV infection (16.7% vs. 1.3%), whereas El-Din et al. (
38)detected more mutants in patients with HCC than in controls with liver cirrhosis (15.0% vs. 0.0%). Overall, these results are consistent with our hypothesis that considers cirrhotic livers as cell-poor tissues unfavorable to the constant release of the R249S mutation and to its subsequent detection in plasma. In keeping with this hypothesis, Traore et al. analyzed a population of HBV-infected subjects in Bamako (Mali, South of the Sahara) and found more than 40 R249S copies/mL of plasma in 60% of cases (
39). The use of ddPCR as a quantitative technique might, however, enable us to sort-out in the future between an ongoing clonal cell proliferation indicative of a tumor process and the presence in the blood of genomes from isolated cells killed directly either by aflatoxin B1 or by immune cells chasing for neoantigens generated by AFB1 mutagenesis.
As suggested previously, it is highly plausible that in absence of concomitant persistent infection with a hepatitis virus, control subjects with healthy liver will not develop HCC despite the presence of R249S mutant in their sera (
37). In these populations,
TP53 R249S is thus not a
bona fide tumor biomarker but merely a marker of exposure to AFB1. Beyond the issue of HCC that is supposedly of minor concern for public health in Tunisia, our work implies that AFB1 might produce in Tunisia its deleterious effects outside the liver on various segments of the population. It is well-known that besides its widely advertised mutagenic activity, AFB1 is endowed with multiple toxicities that affect most notably the growth of children and the immune system of the subjects exposed (
40-
42). These potential extra-hepatic consequences of AFB1 activity on the Tunisian population might thus represent an ominous challenge for public health.
Our study suffers from an important limitation, that is, the small number of patients investigated. This shortcoming prevents any firm and definitive conclusion concerning the true distribution and in vivo impact of AFB1 contamination on the Tunisian population. Our work is, however, seminal as it is the first to be conducted on that field in the whole Maghrib region that consists of more than 86 million habitants. It should be therefore considered as a whistleblowing study aiming to stimulate more ambitious research programs and to attract the attention of public health stakeholders.
In conclusion, our study indicates that droplet digital PCR might represent a useful tool to complement the current procedures of HCC diagnosis. In addition, our data indicates that this technique could be useful when implemented in public health research. In the present case, it seems that middle-aged Tunisians are heavily exposed to the mutagenic activity of AFB1 as previously suggested by environmental and food scientists (
6). Urgent initiatives are now necessary to confirm our data and eventually reduce the impact of AFB1 on Tunisians, as its deleterious activity might extend well beyond the carcinogenic risk, and inter alia, impacts with unforeseeable longer-term consequences the health of the younger strata of the population.