In this prospective design, incidence rate and associated predictors of depression over twelve weeks postpartum were explored among the first- time mothers. Although the prevalence of PPD is studied, few studies explored the incidence of PPD (
33). The incidence of PPD during three months post-partum was not uncommon among first- time mothers (10.7%) in the current study. This rate was consistent with the incident rate reported in Spain (9.3%) (
34) and Chinese first-time mothers (13%) (
35), but exceed 5.3% and 3.5% at the same time period and using the same measurements in the United Kingdom (
34,
36,
37). O’Hara and Swain (
38) stated that the probable rate of PPD is predominant in the first three months post-partum. The variety in the range of PPD is unpredictably wide because it depends on many factors such as sample sizes and sampling methods, differences in PPD symptom definition and expression and the time the depression is evaluated (
2). In the present study, increased support was not statistically associated with reduced risk of PPD as reported in some other studies (
34,
39,
40). Shaw et al. (
41) reviewed 25 studies to examine the effectiveness of post-partum support programs to improve maternal mood from immediately after birth to one year post-partum, and documented that universal provision of post-partum support could not improve maternal mental health. However, there are some evidences indicating that females at high risk for either family dysfunction or PPD could benefit from post-partum support especially peer support that produced a statistically significant reduction in EPDS scores (
41). The present study was an opportunity to assess both social support and social isolation to evaluate the support milieu. In agreement with other studies that indicate females who experienced social isolation from family, friends, or partner during pregnancy had an increased risk of PPD (
42-
44), the current study revealed that the perceived social isolation is associated with PPD. In a prospective Danish study (n = 5,091) perceived social isolation was the most significant predictor of PPD, and one out of three females with perceived social isolation developed PPD (
42). During statistical process of modeling in the current study, social isolation was surprisingly a predictor of PPD, while social support was not. A possible explanation for this phenomenon could be that social isolation is a significant negative aspect of social support as a predictor of PPD. However, this study failed to describe details of social support. Sources of this support were hypothesized to be most influential (
45). Another issue which was not examined in the present study and thus needs further investigation was the satisfaction regarding the experienced support. In a study carried out in Mexico, Martinez-Schallmoser et al. (
46) showed that females with unfulfilled desire for support and paradoxically those who had over protective surroundings and believed to have excessive support, felt isolated much more and were more vulnerable to PPD. Marital satisfaction was a factor related to scoring on EPDS in this study. One of the most dominant PPD risk factors, that are frequently studied, is marital dissatisfaction (
34,
47,
48). Poor marital relationship, such as inability to confide in a partner, may contribute to post-partum depression (
49). A qualitative study among Jordanian-Australian females revealed that the ones with less supportive and understanding partners were more prone to depression (
50). A review study in Middle East and Asian countries found that females in United Arab Emirates (UAE), Hong Kong, Turkey and India, who had marital conflicts, were more prone to PPD. There are occasions in one’s personal life, for instance during post-partum period, when a female yearnings support from a close and trusting partner (
51). Encountering difficulties in the interpersonal relationship, particularly when emotional and practical supports are not provided, is prone to increase the risk for PPD development (
15). One should not be ignored, is the effect of parenthood capability in relation to females’ psychosocial performance (
52). The findings of the current study showed that low self-efficacy was a risk factor for depression over 12 weeks of post-partum, were consistent with those of earlier studies, which found the association between the lack of postnatal parental competence with PPD (
43,
53). As the females under the current study were the first-time mothers and perhaps had no previous childcare experience, it could be possible that this group experienced more stress when they began to care for the baby (
54). This could also be as the result of not being prepared for mothering from pregnancy (
55). To the authors’ best knowledge, this cohort study for the first time evaluated sociological predictors of PPD among the first-time mothers using both univariate and multivariate analyses while controlling the symptoms of depression in the pregnancy. The incidence of PPD in the first-time mothers was high. Perceived social isolation, maternal parental self-efficacy and marital satisfaction stress exposure contributed to PPD. These findings emphasize the importance of health care providers, family, particularly their partner and own mothers’ support to first-time mothers to enhance maternal parental self-efficacy and their mental health. The current study findings cannot be generalized to the entire population, since the sample under study were just first-time mothers. In addition, much of the data from the females were self-reporting. Although most studies indicate a high validity of the EPDS, it would have been ideal to confirm depression in females with increased EPDS scores by diagnostic interview schedule, version III, revised (DIS). Another limitation was lack of data on other risk factors such as psychological elements.