Breast cancer patients are at recurrence risk even years after receiving treatment which is the highest during the 2 - 3 years after detection of the primary tumor (
9). Distant metastasis is the most prevalent form of recurrence and the main cause of death in breast cancer patients. Prognostic factors, estimated to cause recurrence and distant metastasis following the treatment in stages 1, 2, and 3 of breast cancer, include pathologic of breast cancer, tumor grade, tumor size, involvement of lymph node, and hormone receptors’ status of ER, PR, and HER2 (
13,
14). In a study conducted on recurrence factors, involvement of lymph nodes, tumor grade, tumor size, and age were strong predictors of recurrence, and estrogen receptors had a medium effect (
15).
Our study, a retrospective study, analyzed 313 breast cancer patients from 1604 women suffering from breast cancer in Iran.In our initial investigation of effective factors in recurrence, similar to previous studies, the most effective factors in breast cancer recurrence were lower ages, involvement of axillary lymph node, negative estrogen receptor, higher grades of tumor, higher stages of disease, and lymph vascular invasion.
Akbari et al. in a study on 258 breast cancer patients, concluded that the recurrence risk factors are negative estrogen receptor, and lymph vascular invasion, but other demographic, pathologic and biologic factors (e.g. progesterone, HER2 and P53) were not significantly effective (
16).
In recent decades, due to the increase in survival in breast cancer patients as a result of advancements in diagnosis and treatment methods, studies have moved towards investigation of effective factors in early and late recurrence. In a study by Erick Sta et al. which focused on factors effective in less than 2-year recurrence, the major factors effective in early recurrence were tumor stage, and size and lymph node status. This study showed that her2 receptor overexpression was not the only determining factor, but triple negative breast cancer patients were likely to experience early metastasis (
9).
Although several studies in Iran have investigated effective factors in recurrence and metastasis (
17-
19), studies conducted on effective factors in early and late recurrence are scarce. In this study, we examined effective factors in recurrence (as mentioned earlier), and effective prognostic factors in too early recurrence (less than 1 year) and longer than 5-year recurrence.
Tumor size and the number of involved lymph nodes which shows the expansion of the tumor, were pronounced the most effective prognostic factors in breast cancer recurrence (
20). However, too early recurrence of tumor as a result of the treatment is considered a factor beyond the recurrence risk factors. Previous studies showed that nodal stage in early recurrence was earlier than 5 years (
21). And the most effective factor in late recurrence after 5 years was advanced stage of primary tumor (
22).
The most important factors in early recurrence, in a study conducted to examine the effective factors in recurrence earlier than 5 years and later than 5 years on positive receptor patients, were higher nodal stage, higher histologic grade, and age < 35 years, which had insignificant effects on late recurrence. The effective factor in decreasing late recurrence in these patients was endocrine therapy (
23). Moreover, another study in this area concluded that lymph node status and tumor size were predictive factors of late recurrence and death in patients with positive receptor after menopause (
24).
Multivariate analysis showed that the most effective factors in early recurrence among our patients were estrogen and progesterone receptor status, and the most effective factor in late recurrence in these patients was stage of disease. Lymph vascular invasion was the common effective factor in both groups. In this study, exploring differences between effective factors in early and late recurrence showed that the most effective factors in too early recurrence were the tumor biologic factors (estrogen and progesterone receptor negative), but we did not observe receptor effects in late recurrence. The reason is that the biggest effect of estrogen and progesterone receptor status in increasing recurrence risk is in the first 3 years after the treatment and goes after that (
25). We also found that the most effective factor in late recurrence after 5 years was stage of disease which is in line with the findings of some other studies (
26).
Many studies on hormone receptors have shown that negative estrogen and progesterone receptors increase response to weakly treatment, among breast cancer patients (
27,
28).
Although breast cancer survival has increased together with recent advances in early diagnosis techniques and adjuvant treatments, metastatic patients have varied survival time, because the difference in survival time, determining the prognostic factors for these patients is important.
Bone metastasis is the most common type of distant recurrence in breast cancer patients (
29). Our study supports these findings. In the present study, 67.09% (210 patients) were involved with distant organ metastasis and 24.28 %( 76 patients) involved with loco regional recurrence. The most common type of distant metastasis is seen the bone metastasis (40.95% of total distant metastasis).
Patients with bone metastasis generally have longer survival time as compared with the patients with other organ distant metastasis (
30). Several studies showed that the patients with longer interval of recurrence development had longer survival (
31). Factors affecting the prognosis in the people with recurrence are shorter DFS, recurrence site, the extent of involvement (single or multiple), hormone receptors status, and level of response to treatment (
26).
A recent consensus paper reported that multiple factors including HER2 status, site/extent of recurrence or metastasis, DFS, and adjuvant treatments are effective in patients’ prognosis (
32,
33).
In search of factors affecting death in patients with recurrence, this study found that factors such as higher grades of tumors, recurrence site, and DFS played a significant role. Patients with loco regional recurrence had a mean DFS of 4.3 years (CI = 3.27 - 5.40) and those with visceral recurrence had a mean DFS of 3.3 (CI = 2.7 - 4.02), which in turn causes better prognosis in patients with longer DFS (with loco regional recurrence). Risk of death in visceral recurrence was more than loco regional recurrence and in patients with bone recurrence, it was more than loco regional recurrence but less than other distant metastasis or visceral metastasis.
Patients with tumor grade 3 had a higher risk of death than those with grade 1. In terms of DFS, patients with DFS > 5 years had the best prognosis and lower death risk compared to patients with DFS < 1.
A drawback of this study was that we did not investigate adjuvant therapy in recurrence risk which should be considered to avoid bias in future studies, it. Future research can be conducted to study more patients with recurrence as well as treatment types. According to the findings of this study, a better understanding of invasive tumor features in breast cancer patients together with the risk factors in individual patients can lead to individual treatments not general guidelines. Because each patient has a unique set of demographic, clinic-pathologic and biologic factors which create a whole different context for recurrence.
5.1. Conclusion
This study was aimed to find risk factors of early and late recurrence in breast cancer patients; so that it can detect subcategories of patients with recurrence risk to better choose the treatments and provide better follow up and care to minimize the risk of recurrence and increase survival. Also, to avoid unnecessary treatments, tests and imaging in follow up in the case of lower risk patients with the purpose of minimizing expenses and physical side effect.