Considering the fact that today’s population is aging as an inevitable consequence of a steady increase in life expectancy (
1), osteoporosis has now become a global widespread disease (
1). Although osteoporosis affects both sexes, the prevalence of the disease is significantly higher in women of all races, especially in their postmenopausal stage (
2,
3). It is estimated that about 200 million women worldwide suffer from the disease (
4). In the USA and Europe, osteoporosis affects around 30% of post-menopausal women of whom 40% experience one or more bone fractures in their life (
5).
In Iran, as an upper-middle income country, the incidence of osteoporosis is growing. The population is graying with more than 4 million people over the age of 65 (
6,
7). In addition, 45% of men and 61% of women have been reported to suffer from vitamin D deficiency, which is a well-known risk factor for osteoporosis (
8,
9). Among people older than 50 years, the incidence of osteoporosis is over 22% for women and about 11% for men. Considering a large number of patients with osteoporosis in Iran, around two million people have been reported to be at the risk of fracture (
10,
11).
Teriparatide is the only anabolic treatment available for osteoporosis. Unlike all the antiresorptive medicines which reduce bone resorption, teriparatide has a different mechanism and triggers bone formation (
12). According to the guidelines of American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists and American College of Endocrinology (AACE/AAE), teriparatide is a treatment of choice in postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) patients who are at high risk of fracture or have failed or have not responded to previous osteoporosis therapies (
13,
14).
There are a few local cost-effectiveness studies available to compare different treatments in the management of osteoporosis; however, there is not any local study evaluating the cost and benefits of teriparatide in the target group of patients, i.e. patients with severe osteoporosis only. This study was aimed to assess the cost-utility of teriparatide in comparison with no treatment in severe PMO from the health system perspective in Iran.
Methods
Model overview
A seven health state Markov cohort micro-simulation model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of teriparatide in the treatment of PMO compared to placebo using TreeAge Pro 2018 Software. The model was developed based on the previously published lifetime Markov cohort models in PMO (
15–
17) to encompass the results of teriparatide outcome and cost data for 2018.
Figure 1 shows the structure of the Markov model.
The cycle length was 6 months, and all patients were followed through the model from their age at the initiation of the treatment until they were 100 years old or dead. All patients began the simulation in the no-fracture health state. For each six-month cycle, i.e. Markov cycle, patients in the cohort were assigned a probability of staying healthy, sustaining a fracture or dying. Patients in the cohort who experienced a fracture may transit to a hip fracture, vertebral fracture or other osteoporotic fracture depending on the fracture type. After one year in a given fracture state, the patients can experience 4 states: sustain a new fracture, move to the post-fracture state (either post-hip or post-vertebral fracture, depending on the previous health state), move back to the healthy state (for “other fracture group” only) or die. Patients in the post-vertebral fracture state can stay in this state, experience a new vertebral fracture, experience a new hip fracture or die. From the post-hip fracture state, patients can remain in this state, sustain a new hip fracture or die. The patient cohort was adjusted according to their baseline characteristics, i.e. if the patients had a prevalent fracture before the intervention, their quality of life, costs involved, as well as their mortality risk would be adjusted accordingly.
Clinical data and treatment effect
The model captured the effectiveness of teriparatide in severe PMO patients, the ones with the mean age of 70 years with either a T-score of -2.5 and a prior fracture as the patient population. In keeping with other similar studies, the treatment duration with 20µg daily teriparatide was assumed to be 18 months (
15,
18).
There are sufficient clinical data available about teriparatide use in PMO such that clinical effectiveness, the relative risk of fracture, the incidence of osteoporotic fracture, as well as the risk of relevant adverse effects are extracted from the relative studies (
12).
According to Neer
et al., treatment with teriparatide reduced the risk of hip fracture (RR 0.50, CI 0.09–2.73), wrist fracture (RR 0.54, CI 0.22–1.35), humerus fracture (RR 0.80, CI 0.22–2.98), clinical vertebral fracture (RR 0.35, CI 0.22– 0.55), and other non-vertebral fracture (RR 0.47, CI 0.25–0.88)(
12,
17).
In line with treatment guidelines, patients were assumed to be given teriparatide for 18 months, and the effectiveness was assumed to apply at its maximum initial level for the whole treatment period (
15). Thereafter, the effect was assumed to taper to zero over 24 and 30 months (i.e., the offset time of treatment effect) for vertebral and non-vertebral fractures respectively, based on the follow-up study of the clinical trial (
12,
19). This approach had been formerly adopted in similar cost-effectiveness studies (
15,
18). In a sensitivity analysis, treatment periods of 12 and 24 months and scenarios assuming no and doubled offset time were explored.
Risk of fracture
As only age-specific hip fracture incidence rate was available for Iran (
20–
23), other, age-specific fracture risks were derived from various studies (
16,
23–
25). Age-specific wrist fracture, vertebral fracture, and non-vertebral fracture risks were only available for a Swedish population (
25). Therefore, to assess vertebral fracture risks in Iran, it was presumed that the ratio of clinical vertebral fracture to hip fracture was similar to the ratio in Sweden. Thusly, the vertebral fracture risk in Iran was calculated based on this ratio and hip fracture risk in Iran (
24). The incidence of fractures is illustrated in
Table 1. The incidence data were linearly extrapolated to 100 years of age where data were missing.
The risk of having an osteoporotic fracture prior to a fracture at the same location was considered based on a study by Johnell in 2004. Their study showed that the risk of upcoming fracture increases for 5 years after a fracture and it is at the highest level in the first year (
26).
Mortality
The age-specific baseline mortality in Iranian women was derived from WHO data(
27) and was subsequently applied to the relative risk of mortality after a fracture, which is illustrated in
table 2 (
28).
As it was revealed in the previous studies, mortality in the first year following a fracture was assumed to be higher than in subsequent years for hip and vertebral fractures. Other osteoporotic fractures were assumed to only have an increased risk of mortality in the first year of fracture (
26,
29,
30).
Persistence rate
Although teriparatide needs to be injected twice daily and persistence rate is not anticipated to be high, Landfeldt and his colleagues reported that persistence rate to the medicine is 70.3% (Cl 95 64.0-75.8%) for 1 year (
31). The same persistence rate was used in this study.
Quality of life and utility
The background age-specific utility weights were derived from the available literature (
17,
32,
33). Based on the published clinical studies, it was assumed that each fracture decreases the quality of life (QoL) at a certain level (
34,
35). The impact of hip and vertebral fracture on quality of life was extracted from a meta-analysis (
3). The disutility associated with “other” fractures in the first year was derived from a study by Borgstrom
et al. (
4). The fracture-specific utility multipliers are shown in
Table 3.
For hip and vertebral fractures, reduction in QoL was taken into account both in the short term and the long term based on the fact that utility decrease is different in the first year compared to the following years; however, in wrist fractures, the utility decrease was considered for the first year only. The QoLs were calculated by multiplying the certain age-specific QoL by the relating fracture-specific utility multipliers.
Costs and discounting
According to the study perspective, health system perspective, all direct medical costs were taken into account in the year 2018 values at the average governmental exchange rate of 1 US dollar = 42,000 Iranian Rial (IRR). Direct costs included costs of medicines, healthcare, and hospitalization. Patients were considered to be hospitalized in the ICU department for 3 to 5 days for each fracture. Also, the nursing costs, physicians’ visit, and laboratory tests were included. Costs of medicines were extracted from the official prices published by the Food and Drug Administration of Iran (
36).
Cost items of hospitalization for hip, vertebral, wrist, and other fractures were identified based on the routine practice of key opinion leaders (KOLs) in osteoporosis treatment in Iran as well as the available literature. The total cost of specific fracture management was extracted from Iranian osteoporosis society and Iranian rheumatology association including the cost of surgery, the cost of hospitalization, the cost of monitoring, the cost of physicians visit, and the cost of post-surgery follow-up. Then cost calculation was done based on the official prices for healthcare in Iran (
37). All the cost related data are shown in
table 4 and
5 (
38,
39).
In the long term basis, costs of 6 months of nursing at home and annual bone marrow density (BMD) test were entered into the model. For hip and vertebral fracture, the cost of managing bed sores was also taken into account. Both groups were considered to take at least 1000 mg Calcium Carbonate and 400 IU vitamin D once daily along with tablet of Naproxen 500 mg twice daily. All the costs are shown in
table 4 and
5. Costs and effects were discounted at a rate of 7.2% and 5% respectively (
40).
Cost of teriparatide in this study is calculated based on locally produced biosimilar product (CinnoPar®, CinnaGen Company).
Sensitivity analysis
One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out to investigate the impact of individual variables on the results of the model. Variables were changed over a credible range of probabilities, parameters, and assumptions extracted from the literature or an assumed variation of ± 25% around the base case. Sensitivity results were plotted on a Tornado diagram by ranking parameters from the most sensitive to the least sensitive.
Furthermore, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA), based on a second-order Monte-Carlo simulation, was carried out to include uncertainties of all parameters concurrently. The number of iterations was equal to 1000. The results of Monte-Carlo simulation were presented in the form of incremental cost-effectiveness scatterplot, which illustrates the proportion of samples that are below different values of willingness to pay (WTP) for a QALY gained. In this study, the acceptable WTP threshold was considered up to the triplicate of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) per capita according to the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation(
41). GDP/Capita in Iran was considered IRR 138,000,000 (USD 3,285) for the 2017 fiscal year. As a consequence, a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve was determined over a range of WTP thresholds, from IRR 138,000,000 to IRR 414,000,000 per QALY. Fracture relative risks, utilities, and health-care costs were assumed to have log-normal, beta, and gamma distributions respectively considering their standard deviation (
Table 6).
Outcomes
Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), the gold standard outcome measurement for cost-utility studies, were used to measure the health benefits delivered by teriparatide treatment regimen. QALYs were calculated by downwardly adjusting the life expectancy of the treatment for losses in quality of life as measured by utility. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated by dividing the difference in costs (𝞓C) by the difference in effectiveness between two competing strategies (𝞓E).
ICER== Equ.1