Previous reports showed that BC is the most frequent cancer in Iranian women and there is an increasing trend for incidence in the country (
10,
26,
27). For example, in a cross-sectional study based on Iran’s cancer registry reports, it was found that Isfahan, Yazd, Gilan, and Alborz provinces had the highest incidence rate of BC (
21). Factors such as population aging, no full-term pregnancy, late age at first pregnancy, lack of breastfeeding, hormonal pregnancy control, and obesity might be responsible for the trend (
28,
29). Investigating the incidence rate due to BC can be important for the government to make policy decisions on allocating resources for early identification and treatment, as well as help to improve the proportion of cancer reported to the registry. Thereby, this article south to describe and discover the population at high risk at Iran's country level.
In the present study, using the data from the Cancer Registry Center report of the health deputy, it was found that Tehran and North Khorasan provinces had the highest and lowest new cases of BC, respectively, in 2016. According to evidence, BC was noted as the most frequent malignancy in Tehran women (
27). In large cities like Tehran, due to the increasing social role of women, the social effects of exposure to various risk factors can be more efficacious in the development of BC than in provinces away from Tehran with lower population densities (
30). Notably, aging and population growth can be clueing drivers of the high incidence of BC. Besides, demographic transitions can lead to new cases of this cancer being gained differently. Nevertheless, the remarkable improvements in cancer registries and data management should be considered in this city. Roshandel et al., using the database of the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR), detected that the number of new BC cases diagnosed in Golestan had faced a rise from 2004 to 2016 (
31). As such, a 93.2% increment in the number of new cases of BC among females is predicted by 2025 in this province (
31). This may be partly explained by changes in reproductive characteristics of women, consisting of delayed first birth and decreased parity (
32). In another study performed by Fazel et al. conducted on data from GBCR from 2004 to 2013, it was found that most new BC cases occurred among women living in urban areas of Golestan (
33). Changes in the lifestyle of women such as delayed first birth, decrease in parity, growing levels of overweight and obesity, and decrease in physical activity may have an important role in the high risk of BC in the province (
33). Hence, it is of great importance to evaluate the special requirement and implement optimal BC control strategies according to the cancer profiles in Golestan.
This study supports that among all provinces, Tehran and Sistan and Baluchestan had the highest and lowest incidence rates of BC, respectively. One reason for the high incidence in Tehran may be the availability and highly prevalent use of cancer screening in this province. On the contrary, low use of mammography screening may course a lower BC incidence rate in Sistan and Baluchestan. After Tehran province, Isfahan province has the highest incidence rate of BC; Isfahan province is geographically located in the center of Iran and is ranked as the third most populated province in the country (
34). This is a multicultural and industrial zone with various industries. Kazemi et al. by performing a cross-sectional study on 6507 Iranian women living in Isfahan indicated that the ASIR may be due to BC incremented from 22.0/100000 in 2001 to 68.0/100000 in 2013 (
35). Elevated BC incidence rate may in some part be due to a more westernized lifestyle, reduced parity and breastfeeding, weight gain, and growth consumption of animal fat (
35). Evidence of BC incidence trends in Isfahan yields that 10% of the BC cases in Iran have happened in this province. Using joint point regression analysis, an upward trend in BC incidence was reported from 2001 to 2013 (
20). According to an earlier report by the Iranian Ministry of Health in 2014, the ASIR from BC in Isfahan was 42.7 (
36). A possible explanation for the difference between our results and the Health Ministry could be owing to the loss of the exclusion of the cases under 20 years old, as well as duplicate data (
37). Also, in the study of Mahaki et al., it was shown that the lowest incidence rates of BC in women were from Sistan and Baluchistan province (
38). Golestan province, which is located in the north of Iran, has been known as a high-risk area for BC. Recent studies based on the Golestan population-based cancer registry revealed a substantial increase in age-specific incidence rates among young females (
39,
40). Comparing the BC ASIR with those of BC around the world, it can be concluded that Golestan is one of the low-risk areas. The low rate can be mainly attributed to epidemiological and demographic characteristics and the cancer registry (
41). However, the distinction in diagnosed age of BC, differences in major risk factors, screening strategies, and population size or structures of different regions may be the reasons for the disparities in incidence among different world regions (
42).
The major finding of spatial cluster analysis is that the hot spots appeared in Isfahan, Markazi, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad in 2016, suggesting that these provinces are known as high-risk areas. While the cold spot is clustered in North Khorasan, which is regarded as a low-risk area. The other provinces were no statistical significance clusters. The hot spots and cold spots confirmed that the BC incidence rate was not randomly distributed. Rahimzadeh et al. reported high levels of geographical heterogeneity in the incidence of BC, using data from the Iranian Ministry of Health data (
18). In accordance with our findings, multiple studies conducted in Iran pointed out the ascending trend in BC incidence. The results obtained from a study based on the population-based cancer registry program in Markazi discerned that the ASIR of BC had increased from 27/100000 in 2010 to 45.7/1000 in 2012 (
43). In a paper using retrospective data from cancer registry reports in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari located in Southwest Iran, the authors showed that the trend in BC incidence was rising from 2003 to 2016 (
44). Similar prior research investigating the Isfahan province was a hot spot for BC incidence (
45). The observed increasing trend in BC incidence in those areas might somehow reflect the noticeable variations in the distribution of risk factors related to shifts in lifestyle and alternating socioeconomic development. More clearly, increasing life expectancy, urbanization, greater exposure to risk factors, delayed childbearing, a higher rate of screening, better cancer registries, and increased surveillance may have an important role in the high incidence of BC. Likewise, in a study, it was shown that Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad had the lowest risk of BC incidence, which is inconstant with our results (
18). Rafiemanesh et al. in a study using available data from a cancer registry in the North Khorasan province in 5 years (2005 - 2009) declared that one of the most common cancers in this province is BC (
46). They demonstrated that BC incidence had an increasing trend until 2008, but then it dropped (
46). The low risk of BC in North Khorasan was primarily explained by the potential preventive effects of certain behaviors, the significantly higher average number of pregnancies and parity, and the total years of breastfeeding.
Based on the results of BC pathology reports, it was found that the completeness of tumor type, tumor site, tumor size, pathologic T stage, pathologic N stage, and tumor grade improved with aging. The completeness of cancer data in different age groups varies depending on the type of cancer and the availability of data. Generally, cancer data tends to be more complete for older age groups, as there are more people in these age groups, who have had cancer and are being monitored for it. However, this is not universal and is the opposite in some studies (
47,
48). On the other hand, data on cancer are often more complete for certain types of cancers, such as breast and colorectal cancers, which have higher rates of diagnosis and treatment (
49,
50). Our results also showed that the tumor grade (100%) and tumor site (95.7%) had the highest, and pathologic T stage (27.4%) and pathologic N stage (33.4%) had the lowest level of completeness among the considered variables. The high completeness may be attributed to the low subjectivity of the interpretation essential. The incomplete reports may be the result of the nature of a pathology-based cancer registry, in which clinically or radiologically diagnosed cases may be missed (
51). Thereby, users of cancer registry data should be aware of the potential changes occurring in registry data and even one or two missing cases, which may lead to biases. Improving the completeness and quality of pathology reports is paramount, and may significantly impact the prognosis of the patient (
52). In this regard, previous studies have recommended the use of some methods (
53,
54). For example, using proforma reporting for pathology reports may grow the completeness rates of the pathology reports up to 96% (
55). In synoptic reporting, a prespecified set of items have to be scored before the report and, then, be finalized (
54). Generally, for BC, pathology-based cancer registration methods may be proper to complete cancer reports.
There are still some limitations to our study. Firstly, as inherent with all cross-sectional studies, this study could neither establish temporality nor causality of the observed associations with incidence from BC. Secondly, the effect of risk factors was not considered in this study due to the lack of information in the data. At the same time, our research has some strengths. One of the main strengths was the use of nationally representative data. In addition, the use of spatial analytical techniques had advantages over standard statistical methods to determine geographical variations of BC incidence in Iran. This may be of public health significance in the fight against the spread of BC.
5.1. Conclusions
In conclusion, our study has shown that BC incidence rates are highest in certain regions of central Iran. To address this issue, early detection, and effective treatments will be critical in reducing the burden of BC in these areas. However, we also found that standard pathology reports for BC in Iran are incomplete, particularly in terms of tumor size, pathologic T stage, pathologic N stage, and tumor grade. To improve the accuracy and completeness of pathology data, continuous evaluation and complement of data are needed. We hope that our study provides insights that will inform BC control strategies in Iran and that future research will shed light on the factors that contribute to the high incidence rates observed in central Iran.