This 10-year retrospective study examined 195 patients with OLP or OLL to assess the rate of malignant transformation and associated factors. The overall malignant TR was 3.6% (7 out of 195 patients), which is higher than rates reported in some previous studies. For instance, Guan et al. (
9) reported 2.8% TR. But it is lower than a similar study in Iran (6.2%), which could be due to different population and sample size, and the duration of their study (
10). The discrepancy could be due to various factors, including the follow-up period, differences in patient populations and sample size, or variations in diagnostic criteria. It should be mentioned that our study strictly applied WHO guidelines for OLP and combined clinical with microscopic criteria for OLL, whereas other studies might have used alternative or less stringent criteria (
8). Differences in patient populations, such as demographic characteristics, genetic predispositions, and environmental exposures, could also play a significant role (
10). Additionally, methodological differences, including sample size and follow-up duration, might contribute to the observed variation (
11). Future research incorporating larger, multi-center samples and standardized diagnostic protocols is needed to further clarify these associations.
Interestingly, our study found no statistically significant difference in malignant TRs between OLP (4.1%) and OLL (2%) (P = 0.682). Similarly, Shearston et al. (
12) reported a lower rate of malignant transformation of OLL vs OLP (0 and 0.49%). A recent meta-analysis also aligns with these findings (
13). The previous one reported 1.1% TR for OLP (
11). On the other hand, another systematic review concluded 1.37% for OLP and 2.43% for OLL (
14). An umbrella review also suggested a lower TR for OLP against OLL (
4,
15). Another study also reported that TR was higher for OLL (4.4%) than OLP (1.2%) (
16). Another study concluded TR (1.7%) with OLP and (5.9%) with OLL (
17). The discrepancy might be due to differences in sample size, follow-up period, or diagnostic criteria used in various studies. Our results suggest that both OLP and OLL should be monitored closely for potential malignant transformation.
Regarding lesion location, our study found that malignant transformation occurred in the buccal mucosa (3.6%), tongue (4.9%), and lip (7.1%). Although the lip showed the highest malignant TR, a statistically significant difference was not observed (P = 0.918). Another study reported the tongue as the most common site for malignant transformation, followed by the buccal mucosa. But another study noted buccal mucosa as a common site (
18). In our study, the higher rate observed in lip lesions warrants further investigation in larger studies.
The present study found no significant association between the type of lesion (erosive vs. non-erosive) and malignant transformation (P = 0.468). This result differs from some previous studies, which reported a higher risk of malignant transformation in erosive OLP (
9,
19-
21). Or some reported reticular (
18) or other forms as high risk. The discrepancy might be due to differences in sample size or the classification criteria used for erosive and non-erosive lesions. Our findings suggest that both erosive and non-erosive lesions should be monitored with equal vigilance.
Gender was not significantly associated with malignant transformation in our study (P > 0.99), with 3.8% of female patients and 3.1% of male patients developing cancer. This finding is consistent with most previous studies, including Varghese et al. (
18), who found no significant gender predilection with a higher incidence in women in OLP. This suggests that gender may not be a crucial factor in determining the risk of malignant transformation in OLP and OLL.
The mean age of patients who developed cancer (44.4 ± 16.7 years) was not significantly different from those without SCC (48.5 ± 13.8 years) (P = 0.453). This result contrasts with some studies who reported a higher risk of malignant transformation in older patients. An important aspect of our study is the relatively high overall TR of 3.6%. This rate emphasizes the importance of long-term follow-up for patients with OLP and OLL. Regular monitoring and biopsy of suspicious areas should be considered standard practice in managing these patients.
The small number of malignant transformation cases (n = 7) in this study significantly limits the statistical power needed to identify significant associations between variables. Consequently, while no specific risk factors were found, this limitation emphasizes the need for future studies with larger sample sizes to validate these findings. Advanced statistical methods, such as Bayesian approaches or predictive modeling, may help overcome sample size challenges and improve risk factor identification in future research.
Due to the inconsistent recording of data related to smoking, alcohol consumption, and HCV status in patient records, these variables were not included in this study. This limited our ability to analyze their potential role as risk factors for malignant transformation. Furthermore, dysplasia grading was not documented in pathology reports, preventing us from assessing its role as a significant risk factor. Future studies should consider these variables for more comprehensive analyses.
Future prospective studies with larger sample sizes and longer follow-up periods are needed to further elucidate the risk factors for malignant transformation in OLP and OLL. Additionally, molecular and genetic studies may provide deeper insights into the mechanisms underlying malignant transformation. For instance, investigating biomarkers such as miRNA-146a, which shows differential expression between OLP and OSCC, could lead to improved risk assessment (
22). Such molecular insights are crucial for developing better management strategies, which may include novel therapeutic approaches that target pathways like apoptosis in cancer cells (
23).
5.1. Conclusions
In conclusion, our study provides valuable insights into the malignant transformation of OLP and OLL in an Iranian population. The higher TR compared to some previous studies underscores the potential risk associated with these conditions. While we did not identify specific risk factors for malignant transformation, our results suggest that all patients with OLP or OLL, regardless of lesion type, location, patient age, or gender, should be considered at risk and monitored accordingly.